Profiles

Nichel Gonzalez

Doktorand

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Arbetar vid Psykologiska institutionen
Telefon 08-16 28 79
E-post nichel.gonzalez@psychology.su.se
Besöksadress Frescati hagväg 14
Rum 225
Postadress Psykologiska institutionen 106 91 Stockholm

Publikationer

I urval från Stockholms universitets publikationsdatabas
  • 2014. Nichel Gonzalez, Ola Svenson. Polish Psychological Bulletin 45 (1), 29-35

    Previous research showed that accumulations of capital following stationary interest rates are underestimated byhuman judges. Hyperbolic discounting was suggested as a descriptive and explanatory model for this phenomenon. First,we investigated judged accumulated capital after a period of annual growth and decline. The degree of underestimationincreased with accumulated growth and the results supported hyperbolic discounting as a descriptive model on the grouplevel. However, the hyperbolic model did not apply to the data for one third of the participants. Second, we investigatedhow investment decisions were related to capital accumulation before the investments and to judgments of the possibleoutcomes of the future investments. To our surprise, the participants’ judgments of expected future accumulated capitaldid not add predictive power to predictions based on whether there was growth or decline before the investment decision.Unfortunately this strategy leads to suboptimal investment decisions.

  • 2014. Ola Svenson, Nichel Gonzalez, Gabriella Eriksson. Judgment and decision making 9 (5), 465-478

    Svenson (2011) showed that choices of one of two alternative productivity increases to save production resources (e.g., man-months) were biased. Judgments of resource savings following a speed increase from a low production speed linewere underestimated and following an increase of a high production speed line overestimated. The objective formula for computing savings includes differences between inverse speeds and this is intuitively very problematic for most people.The purpose of the present studies was to explore ways of ameliorating or eliminating the bias. Study 1 was a control study asking participants to increase the production speed of one production line to save the same amount of production resources(man-months) as was saved by a speed increase in a reference line. The increases judged to match the reference alternatives showed the same bias as in the earlier research on choices. In Study 2 the same task and problems were used as in Study 1,but the participants were asked first to judge the resource saving of the reference alternative in a pair of alternatives before they proceeded to the matching task. This weakened the average bias only slightly. In Study 3, the participants were askedto judge the resources saved from each of two successive increases of the same single production line (other than those of the matching task) before they continued to the matching problems. In this way a participant could realize that a secondproduction speed increase from a higher speed (e.g., from 40 to 60 items /man-month) gives less resource savings than the same speed increase from a first lower speed (e.g., from 20 to 40 items/man-month. Following this, the judgments of thesame problems as in the other studies improved and the bias decreased significantly but it did not disappear. To be able to make optimal decisions about productivity increases, people need information about the bias and/or reformulations of the problems.

  • 2012. Ola Svenson, Gabriella Eriksson, Nichel Gonzalez. Accident Analysis and Prevention 45, 487-492

    The purpose of speed limits is to keep driving speed low enough for drivers to be able to pay attention to relevant information and timely execute maneuvers so that the car can be driven in a safe way and stopped in time. If a driver violates a speed limit or drives too fast she or he will not be able to stop as quickly as from a slower speed. We asked participants to imagine that they themselves had driven a car outside a school at a speed of 30 km/h when a child suddenly had rushed into the street. From this speed it was possible to stop the car just in front of the child after braking as quickly and forcefully as possible. We then asked the participants to imagine that they drove the same street at a higher speed of 50 km/h and the child appeared at the same place as before. At what speed would the car hit the child after braking in the same way as before? This kind of problems were presented in three studies and the results showed that the judged speeds of collision were always underestimated in different hypothetical driving context scenarios by judges differing in numerical skills. This indicates an overly optimistic view on the possibilities to reduce speed quickly if the driving speed is too fast, which is an important component of attitudes towards speed limits, their legitimacy and recommended driving speeds. Further implications of the results were discussed last.

Visa alla publikationer av Nichel Gonzalez vid Stockholms universitet

Senast uppdaterad: 16 maj 2017

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