Higher Seminar in Philosophy of Science: Margherita Harris (SOCRATES Centre at Leibniz University)

Seminar

Date: Thursday 20 February 2025

Time: 13.15 – 15.00

Location: D700

From Inductive Risk to Quantifauxcation

Abstract

Debates on the role of values in science have remained surprisingly disconnected from debates on the role of probability in inference—the so-called “statistics wars.” This talk bridges these debates by arguing that the uncritical acceptance of probabilism—the view that probability's role is to quantify degrees of belief or support—often leads philosophers to conflate value-based concerns with deeper epistemic issues.

Revisiting the Rudner–Jeffrey debate, I show how differing conceptions of probability shape the argument from inductive risk and why this matters for broader debates on values in science. I then introduce quantifauxation (Stark, 2021) and disguised quantifauxation to illustrate how probabilistic methods can obscure rather than clarify uncertainty. I conclude that distinguishing methodological concerns from value-based ones is essential for preserving the epistemic integrity of scientific inference.

Last updated: February 17, 2025

Source: Department of Philosophy

eventNewsArticle

standard-article

true

{
  "dimensions": [
    {
      "id": "department.categorydimension.subject",
      "name": "Global categories",
      "enumerable": true,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "department.categorydimension.tag.Keywords",
      "name": "Keywords",
      "enumerable": false,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "department.categorydimension.tag.Person",
      "name": "Person",
      "enumerable": false,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "department.categorydimension.tag.Tag",
      "name": "Tag",
      "enumerable": false,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "FilosofiskaEng.lokal",
      "name": "Lokala Kategorier Filosofiska Eng",
      "enumerable": true,
      "entities": [
        {
          "id": "FilosofiskaEng.lokal.kalender",
          "name": "Local calendar",
          "entities": [],
          "attributes": [],
          "childrenOmitted": false,
          "localizations": {}
        },
        {
          "id": "FilosofiskaEng.lokal.nyheter",
          "name": "Local news",
          "entities": [],
          "attributes": [],
          "childrenOmitted": false,
          "localizations": {}
        }
      ],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "webb2021.categorydimension.Category.Events",
      "name": "Globala kategorier Kalender (Webb 2021)",
      "enumerable": true,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "webb2021.categorydimension.Label",
      "name": "Tema (Webb 2021)",
      "enumerable": true,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "webb2021.categorydimension.Label.en",
      "name": "Themes (Webb 2021)",
      "enumerable": true,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    },
    {
      "id": "webb2021.categorydimension.Keyword",
      "name": "Keywords (Webb 2021)",
      "enumerable": false,
      "entities": [],
      "localizations": {}
    }
  ]
}