Comment on ICES' advice: What level of risk?

The multiannual plan for cod, herring and sprat adopted by the European Parliament and the EU’s fishery ministers in 2016 (MAP) set a limit for the highest acceptable risk for fish stocks. TACs shall set in such a way that there is a less than 5 per cent probability of the stocks falling below the biomass limit value. This rule is set out in Article 4.6 of the MAP, sometimes also known as the '5 percent rule'.

In 2023 the European Commission and the fisheries ministers proposed that Article 4.6 be deleted, but the European Parliament rejected their proposal. 

Bothnian herring

ICES’ forecast is that the catch of Bothnian herring compatible with that level of risk is around 26 000 tonnes 2026. That can be compared with the TAC for 2025 of about 66 000 tonnes.

The stock is currently estimated by ICES to be below the target level for fishing stocks under the MAP. ICES also presents a forecast that a catch of somewhere between 56 000 and 63 000 tonnes is compatible with a fishing pressure that under certain assumptions at some point in an indeterminate future should lead to the stock eventually reaching the target level (technically called MSYBtrigger). 

Central Baltic herring

ICES’ forecast for catches of central Baltic herring at the highest acceptable level of risk in 2026 is nearly 18 per cent lower than last year’s forecast of catches at a fishing pressure that should result in the maximum sustainable yield.

Last year, the EU decided on a TAC below the EU’s share of that level, while Russia (which does not have access to EU’s fishing waters) has reportedly fished at a much higher level. EU catches of herring in the central Baltic could increase somewhat in 2026 and still be compatible with the highest acceptable level of risk, if Russia exercises the same restraint. 

Missing the target

Most of the key commercially fished stocks in the Baltic, covered by the MAP, are still under the EU target level for productive fish stocks, according to ICES’s estimates. That goal should have been reached in 2020. The exceptions are herring in the Gulf of Riga and sprat.

ICES’ assessment is that when the precautionary approach is applied, there should be no catches of cod in the Baltic and that when the so-called MSY-approach and precautionary considerations are applied, that there should be no catches of the western Baltic herring. 

The situation for sprat is more complicated. The stock is estimated to have declined continually in recent years, but still barely be above the EU target value. Despite this, ICES’ predicts that increased catch in 2026 can be sustainable. This is because an incoming year class is estimated to be particularly strong. However, the strength of this year class is also unusually uncertain.  

Environmental targets

ICES notes that there are several stock components (or sub-populations) of the herring stocks in both the Gulf of Bothnia and the central Baltic. These are vulnerable for loss of biodiversity and future productivity, but this is not taken into account in ICES’ calculations. 

The Baltic Sea Centre will follow up with more analysis and comments shortly.

Text: Charles Berkow

Read more:

All ICES advice for the fish stocks in the Baltic Sea