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Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to the planet – how close are they?

A recent paper suggested damaging climate tipping points could be closer than first thought, writes David Armstrong McKay in a new article in The Conversation.

Tipping points in the climate become more likely beyond 1.5°C of warming. Picture from The Conversation/Desdemona72/Shutterstock


The article “Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to the planet – how close are they?” is published on 6 October and is written by David Armstrong McKay, Associated Researcher at Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University.

He writes:
“Continued greenhouse gas emissions risk triggering climate tipping points. These are self-sustaining shifts in the climate system that would lock-in devastating changes, like sea-level rise, even if all emissions ended.

The first major assessment in 2008 identified nine parts of the climate system that are sensitive to tipping, including ice sheets, ocean currents and major forests. Since then, huge advances in climate modelling and a flood of new observations and records of ancient climate change have given scientists a far better picture of these tipping elements. Extra ones have also been proposed, like permafrost around the Arctic (permanently frozen ground that could unleash more carbon if thawed).

Estimates of the warming levels at which these elements could tip have fallen since 2008. The collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet was once thought to be a risk when warming reached 3°C-5°C above Earth’s pre-industrial average temperature. Now it’s thought to be possible at current warming levels.”

Read the article published in The Conversation.  

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More articles in The Conversation by researchers at Stockholm University.

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