Karthik Sastry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Seminar

Date: Tuesday 11 October 2022

Time: 13.00 – 14.30

Location: IIES Seminar Room A822/Zoom

Title: Attention Cycles

Abstract: We document that, in aggregate downturns, US public firms’ attention to macroeconomic conditions rises and the size of their input-choice mistakes falls. We explain these phenomena with a business-cycle model in which firms face a cognitive cost of making precise decisions. Because firms are owned by risk-averse households, there are greater incentives to deliver profits by making smaller input-choice mistakes when aggregate consumption is low. In the data, consistent with our model, financial markets punish mistakes more in downturns and macroeconomically attentive firms make smaller mistakes. Quantitatively, attention cycles generate asymmetric, state-dependent shock propagation and stochastic volatility of output growth


The seminar is in person in the IIES Seminar room with an option to join via link, click here or use Meeting ID: 678 8387 1976