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Fernando Jaramillo

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Arbetar vid Institutionen för naturgeografi
Telefon 08-16 47 71
E-post fernando.jaramillo@natgeo.su.se
Besöksadress Svante Arrhenius väg 8
Rum V 310
Postadress Inst för naturgeografi 106 91 Stockholm

Publikationer

I urval från Stockholms universitets publikationsdatabas
  • 2018. Fernando Jaramillo (et al.). Environmental Research Letters 13 (2)

    The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) is one of the world's most productive tropical wetlands and one that has witnessed some of the greatest recorded dieback of mangroves. Human-driven loss of hydrologic connectivity by roads, artificial channels and water flow regulation appears to be the reason behind mangrove mortality in this ungauged wetland. In this study, we determined the CGSM's current state of hydrologic connectivity by combining a remote sensing technique, termed as Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with a hydrologic study of river water discharge. For this research, we processed 29 ALOS-PALSAR acquisitions taken during the period 2007-2011 and generated 66 interferograms that provide information on relative surface water level changes. We found that change in water discharge upstream on the main tributary of the CGSM could explain at most 17% of the variance of the change in water level in the CGSM. Fresh water inputs into the wetland were identified only when the mean daily water discharge in the river exceeded 700m(3) s(-1), which corresponds to only 30% of the days during the period. The interferogram analysis also revealed that artificial channels within the wetland serve as barriers to water flow and contribute to the overall loss in hydrologic connectivity. We recommend increasing fresh water inputs from the Magdalena River by reducing water regulation of fresh water from the river and improving connectivity on either side of the artificial channels crossing the CGSM. This study emphasizes the potential of the application of wetland InSAR to determine hydrologic connectivity in wetlands that are completely or poorly ungauged and to define the necessary guidelines for wetland hydrologic restoration.

  • 2018. Fernando Jaramillo (et al.). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 (1), 567-580

    During the last 6 decades, forest biomass has increased in Sweden mainly due to forest management, with a possible increasing effect on evapotranspiration. However, increasing global CO2 concentrations may also trigger physiological water-saving responses in broadleaf tree species, and to a lesser degree in some needleleaf conifer species, inducing an opposite effect. Additionally, changes in other forest attributes may also affect evapotranspiration. In this study, we aimed to detect the dominating effect(s) of forest change on evapotranspiration by studying changes in the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, known as the evaporative ratio, during the period 1961-2012. We first used the Budyko framework of water and energy availability at the basin scale to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space of 65 temperate and boreal basins during this period. We found that movements in Budyko space could not be explained by climatic changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 60% of these basins, suggesting the existence of other dominant drivers of hydroclimatic change. In both the temperate and boreal basin groups studied, a negative climatic effect on the evaporative ratio was counteracted by a positive residual effect. The positive residual effect occurred along with increasing standing forest biomass in the temperate and boreal basin groups, increasing forest cover in the temperate basin group and no apparent changes in forest species composition in any group. From the three forest attributes, standing forest biomass was the one that could explain most of the variance of the residual effect in both basin groups. These results further suggest that the water-saving response to increasing CO2 in these forests is either negligible or overridden by the opposite effect of the increasing forest biomass. Thus, we conclude that increasing standing forest biomass is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes in Swedish forests.

  • 2015. Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni. Science 350 (6265), 1248-1251

    Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 +/- 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 +/- 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling.

  • 2015. Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni. Science 348 (6240), 1217

    Steffen et al. (Research Articles, 13 February 2015, p. 736) recently assessed current global freshwater use, finding it to be well below a corresponding planetary boundary. However, they ignored recent scientific advances implying that the global consumptive use of freshwater may have already crossed the associated planetary boundary.

  • 2017. Bruce M. Campbell (et al.). Ecology & society 22 (4)

    We explore the role of agriculture in destabilizing the Earth system at the planetary scale, through examining nine planetary boundaries, or safe limits: land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, climate change, ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, and introduction of novel entities. Two planetary boundaries have been fully transgressed, i.e., are at high risk, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows, and agriculture has been the major driver of the transgression. Three are in a zone of uncertainty i.e., at increasing risk, with agriculture the major driver of two of those, land-system change and freshwater use, and a significant contributor to the third, climate change. Agriculture is also a significant or major contributor to change for many of those planetary boundaries still in the safe zone. To reduce the role of agriculture in transgressing planetary boundaries, many interventions will be needed, including those in broader food systems.

  • 2018. Beverley C. Wemple (et al.). Ecohydrology 11 (3)

    Roads are a pervasive form of disturbance with potential to negatively affect ecohydrological processes. Some of the most rapid growth in road networks is occurring in developing countries, particularly in the tropics, where political agendas are often focused on strengthening the economy, improving infrastructure, bolstering national security, achieving self-sufficiency, and increasing citizen well-being, often at the expense of the environment. We review what is known about road impacts on ecohydrological processes, focusing on aquatic systems, both temperate and tropical. We present seven cases that represent the broader trends of road development and impacts in tropical settings. Many of these process dynamics and impacts are not different from those experienced in temperate settings, although the magnitude of impacts in the tropics may be amplified with intense rainfall and lack of best management practices applied to road construction/maintenance. Impacts of roads in tropical settings may also be unique because of particular organisms or ecosystems affected. We outline a set of best practices to improve road network management and provide recommendations for adopting an agenda of research and road management in tropical settings. Importantly, we call for incorporation of transdisciplinary approaches to further study the effects of roads on ecohydrological processes in the tropics. Specific emphasis should also be placed on collaboration with governments and developers that are championing road development to help identify the drivers of road expansion and thresholds of negative impact, as well as methods of sustainable road construction and maintenance.

  • 2017. Josefin Thorslund (et al.). Ecological Engineering 108 (Part B), 489-497

    Wetlands are often considered as nature-based solutions that can provide a multitude of services of great social, economic and environmental value to humankind. Changes in land-use, water-use and climate can all impact wetland functions and services. These changes occur at scales extending well beyond the local scale of an individual wetland. However, in practical applications, engineering and management decisions usually focus on individual wetland projects and local site conditions. Here, we systematically investigate if and to what extent research has addressed the large-scale dynamics of landscape systems with multiple wetlands, hereafter referred to as wetlandscapes, which are likely to be relevant for understanding impacts of regional to global change. Although knowledge in many cases is still limited, evidence suggests that the aggregated effects of multiple wetlands in the landscape can differ considerably from the functions observed at individual wetland scales. This applies to provisioning of ecosystem services such as coastal protection, biodiversity support, groundwater level and soil moisture regulation, flood regulation and contaminant retention. We show that parallel and circular flow-paths, through which wetlands are interconnected in the landscape, may largely control such scale-function differences. We suggest ways forward for addressing the mismatch between the scales at which changes take place and the scale at which observations and implementation are currently made. These suggestions can help bridge gaps between researchers and engineers, which is critical for improving wetland function-effect predictability and management.

  • 2016. Fernando Jaramillo (et al.). Land Degradation and Development 27 (4), 1064-1074

    Impact assessments on river systems of the combined effect of bed and suspended sediment loads from quarries are difficult to find. In this study, bed and suspended loads were measured to determine the impact of a 20-ha limestone quarry on the river system of its 5,000-ha steep, diverse land use/land cover but mostly forested catchment. A network of hydrologic and sediment monitoring instruments was deployed over the catchment during two separate study periods when sediment loadings were measured from captured storms. Results showed that the quarry stood to make a disproportionately large contribution to the catchment's estimated 2.1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) suspended sediment load. Large storm events contributed most of the loadings with five events supplying 92% of total loadings at the outlet. A paired method approach to compare suspended sediment loads between two subcatchments showed that during eight storm events, the quarry yielded between 2 and 49.2 Mg ha(-1) per event, whereas the forest never yielded more than 0.1 Mg ha(-1). Furthermore, the contribution of sediments from the quarry to bed load was more than 75% at a section located 1.2 km downstream. Future management activities to reduce sediment and bed loads, not only from this catchment but also from all others with similar land use/land covers, should focus on improving quarry operations.

  • 2016. Steve W. Lyon (et al.). Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography 98 (3), 237-245

    In this short communication, we report on dissolved organic and inorganic carbon concentrations from a summer stream monitoring campaign at the main hydrological catchment of the Tarfala Research Station in northern Sweden. Further, we place these unique high-alpine observations in the context of a relevant subset of Sweden's national monitoring programme. Our analysis shows that while the monitoring programme (at least for total organic carbon) may have relatively good representativeness across a range of forest coverages, alpine/tundra environments are potentially underrepresented. As for dissolved inorganic carbon, there is currently no national monitoring in Sweden. Since the selection of stream water monitoring locations and monitored constituents at the national scale can be motivated by any number of goals (or limitations), monitoring at the Tarfala Research Station along with other research catchment sites across Fennoscandia becomes increasingly important and can offer potential complementary data necessary for improving process understanding. Research catchment sites (typically not included in national monitoring programmes) can help cover small-scale landscape features and thus complement national monitoring thereby improving the ability to capture hot spots and hot moments of biogeochemical export. This provides a valuable baseline of current conditions in high-alpine environments against which to gauge future changes in response to potential climatic and land cover shifts.

  • 2013. Fernando Jaramillo (et al.). Journal of Hydrology 484, 55-62

    During the 20th century, Sweden underwent a persistent agricultural development. In this study, we use and combine historical hydroclimatic and agricultural data to investigate how this large scale change of land use, and subsequent intensification of crop production, affected regional hydrology in two adjacent Swedish drainage basins. We find a main increase of evapotranspiration (ET) as cultivated area and/or crop production increased during the period 1901-1940. Thereafter, ET stabilized at a new higher level. Comparison between the data given, water balance constrained ET quantification (ETwb), and a range of different comparative estimates of purely climate driven ET (ETclim) shows that only 31% of the steep 1901-1940 increase of ETwb can be explained by climate change alone. The remaining 69% of this ETwb shift, which occurred in both investigated drainage basins, is instead explainable to large degree by the regional land use conversion from seminatural grasslands to cultivated land and associated enhanced productivity of herbaceous species.

  • 2015. Andrew Quin, Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni. Ambio 44, s127-S137

    Various features of a landscape contribute to the regulating ecosystem service of reducing waterborne pollutant loading to downstream environments. At local scales, wetlands have been shown to be effective in retaining pollutants. Here, we investigate the landscape-scale contribution to pollutant retention provided by multiple wetlands. We develop a general analytical model which shows that the retention contribution of wetlands and other landscape features is only significant if a large fraction of the total waterborne pollutant transport passes through them. Next, by means of a statistical analysis of official data, we quantify the nutrient retention contribution of wetlands for multiple sub-catchments in two Swedish Water Management Districts. We compare this with the retention contribution of two other landscape features: the waterborne transport distance and major lakes. The landscape-scale retention contribution of wetlands is undetectable; rather, the other two landscape features account for much of the total nutrient retention.

  • 2015. Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz.

    Freshwater is a vital resource that circulates between the atmosphere, the land and the sea. Understanding and quantifying changes to the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff and water storage change in the landscape are required for assessing changes to freshwater availability. However, the partitioning processes and their changes are complex due to multiple change drivers and effects. This thesis investigates and aims to identify and separate the effects of atmospheric climate change and various landscape drivers on long-term freshwater change. This is done based on hydroclimatic, land-use and water-use data from the beginning of the twentieth century up to present times and across different regions and scales, from catchment to global. The analyzed landscape drivers include historic developments of irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture and flow regulation. The thesis uses and develops further a data-motivated approach to interpret available hydroclimatic and landscape data for identification of water change drivers and effects, expanding the approach application from local to continental and global scales. Based on this approach development, the thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of landscape drivers against the background of multiple coexisting drivers influencing worldwide freshwater change, within and among hydrological basins. Globally, landscape drivers are needed to explain more than 70% of the historic hydroclimatic changes, of which a considerable proportion may be directly human-driven. These landscape- and human-driven water changes need to be considered and accounted for also in modeling and projection of changes to the freshwater system on land.

  • 2015. Erik Andersson (et al.). Ambio 44, 102-112

    In this exploratory study we use existing in situ qualitative and quantitative data on biophysical and social indicators to compare two contrasting Swedish farming systems (low intensity and high intensity) with regard to ecosystem service supply and demand of a broad suite of services. We show that the value (demand) placed on a service is not necessarily connected to the quantity (supply) of the service, most clearly shown for the services recreation, biodiversity, esthetic experience, identity, and cultural heritage. To better capture this complexity we argue for the need to develop portfolios of indicators for different ecosystem services and to further investigate the different aspects of supply and demand. The study indicates that available data are often ill-suited to answer questions about local delivery of services. If ecosystem services are to be included in policy, planning, and management, census data need to be formatted and scaled appropriately.

  • 2016. Thomas B. Hasper (et al.). Functional Ecology 30 (5), 690-699

    1. The rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and temperature have the potential to substantially affect the terrestrial water and energy balance by altering the stomatal conductance and transpiration of trees. 2. Many models assume decreases in stomatal conductance and plant water use under rising [CO2], which has been used as a plausible explanation for the positive global trend in river run-off over the past century. Plant water use is, however, also affected by changes in temperature, precipitation and land use, and there is yet no consensus about the contribution of different drivers to temporal trends of evapotranspiration (ET) and river run-off. 3. In this study, we assessed water-use responses to climate change by using both long-term monitoring and experimental data in Swedish boreal forests. Historical trends and patterns in ET of large-scale boreal landscapes were determined using climate and run-off data from the past 50 years, while explicit tree water-use responses to elevated [CO2] and/or air temperature were examined in a whole-tree chamber experiment using mature Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees. 4. The results demonstrated that ET estimated from water budgets at the catchment scale increased by 18% over the past 50 years while run-off did not significantly change. The increase in ET was related to increasing precipitation and a steady increase in forest standing biomass over time. The whole-tree chamber experiment showed that Norway spruce trees did not save water under elevated [CO2] and that experimentally elevated air temperature did not increase transpiration as decreased stomatal conductance cancelled the effect of higher vapour pressure deficit in warmed air. 5. Our findings have important implications for projections of future water use of European boreal coniferous forests, indicating that changes in precipitation and standing biomass are more important than the effects of elevated [CO2] or temperature on transpiration rates.

  • 2015. Arvid Bring (et al.). Earths Future 3 (6), 206-217

    The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

  • 2014. Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (23), 8377-8386

    The separate and combined effects of different drivers of change to water fluxes and resources onland (CWOL) remain difficult to distinguish and largely unknown, particularly at a global scale. Our studyanalyzes CWOL during the period 1901–2008, based on available hydroclimatic data for up to 859 hydrologicalbasins. We develop a worldwide spectrum of change magnitudes and directions in Budyko space, from whichwe distinguish climate and landscape drivers of CWOL. We find that landscape drivers (e.g., changes in landand water use, water storage or water phase) are needed to explain CWOL in at least 74% of the basins studied.The water change effects of such landscape drivers are mostly opposite to those of atmospheric climatechange. The change spectrum approach we developed provides a useful tool for quantifying and visualizingCWOL and for distinguishing the effects of climate and landscape drivers across regions and scales.

  • 2014. Ype van der Velde (et al.). Hydrological Processes 28 (13), 4110-4118

    The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles.

  • 2013. Georgia Destouni, Fernando Jaramillo, Carmen Prieto. Nature Climate Change 3 (3), 213-217

    Hydrological change is a central part of global change(1-3). Its drivers in the past need to be understood and quantified for accurate projection of disruptive future changes(4). Here we analyse past hydro-climatic, agricultural and hydropower changes from twentieth century data for nine major Swedish drainage basins, and synthesize and compare these results with other regional(5-7) and global(2) assessments of hydrological change by irrigation and deforestation. Cross-regional comparison shows similar increases of evapotranspiration by non-irrigated agriculture and hydropower as for irrigated agriculture. In the Swedish basins, non-irrigated agriculture has also increased, whereas hydropower has decreased temporal runoff variability. A global indication of the regional results is a net total increase of evapotranspiration that is larger than a proposed associated planetary boundary(8). This emphasizes the need for climate and Earth system models to account for different human uses of water as anthropogenic drivers of hydro-climatic change. The present study shows how these drivers and their effects can be distinguished and quantified for hydrological basins on different scales and in different world regions. This should encourage further exploration of greater basin variety for better understanding of anthropogenic hydro-climatic change.

  • 2015. Johanna Mård Karlsson, Fernando Jaramillo, Georgia Destouni. Journal of Hydrology 529, 134-145

    This paper investigates patterns of lake-area and hydro-climatic change in Arctic river basins, and possible influence of permafrost change reflected in such patterns. A salient change pattern, emerging across all investigated basins in both permafrost and non-permafrost areas, is an opposite change direction in runoff (R) from that in precipitation (P). To explain this change contrast, an increase (decrease) in relative water-balance constrained evapotranspiration ETwb/P is required where R decreases (increases). Increasing temporal variability of daily river discharge (sdQ) is found in all basins with spatially extensive lake decrease, which also exhibit decrease in ELwb/P. Clear indication of basin-wide permafrost thaw is found in only one basin, and is possible in two more, but unlikely in the largest of the total four investigated permafrost basins.

  • 2015. Lea Levi (et al.). Ambio 44 (7), 624-634

    In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

  • 2015. Bodil Elmhagen (et al.). Ecology & society 20 (1)

    Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Visa alla publikationer av Fernando Jaramillo vid Stockholms universitet

Senast uppdaterad: 6 november 2018

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