My research targets the investigation of hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of coastal eutrophication, mainly in the Baltic Sea. I have used both hydrodynamic and water quality numerical models and data analysis methods to study interactions and interlinkages between drivers acting on various scales, from local land-catchment to regional open sea condictions. I have also taken part in other projects, such as investigating the effects of hydroclimatic changes on wetlandscape through the GWEN network, and been involved in teaching master courses.
I urval från Stockholms universitets publikationsdatabas
Simulation of nutrient management and hydroclimatic effects on coastal water quality and ecological status - The Baltic Himmerfjärden Bay case
2020. Guillaume Vigouroux (et al.). Ocean and Coastal Management 198Artikel
Coastal eutrophication is a common problem worldwide, with main drivers including land-based freshwater and nutrient discharges, as well as hydroclimatic and open sea conditions. This study investigates the combined effects of different hydroclimatic and eutrophication management scenarios on coastal water quality and ecological status. As a case study we consider and simulate these scenarios for the Himmerfjärden Bay, situated in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. Effects on different eutrophication-relevant variables are assessed for several potential land, coast and/or sea-based management scenarios under different hydroclimatic conditions spanning the range of recent past observations.
Our results show that the land and sea-based management scenarios have different effects on each of the studied eutrophication-relevant coastal variable. In general, management strategies need to target both nitrogen and phosphorus reduction for robust coastal effects. We find hydroclimate as a key non-human eutrophication driver, which can substantially counteract management effects. For hydroclimatic conditions close to the recently experienced average, various management measures can improve water quality and ecosystem status in the studied local Baltic coast. Under projected climate change, however, such improvement will require combined land- and sea-based measures.
A scalable dynamic characterisation approach for water quality management in semi-enclosed seas and archipelagos
2019. Guillaume Vigouroux (et al.). Marine Pollution Bulletin 139, 311-327Artikel
In semi-enclosed seas, eutrophication may affect both the coastal waters and the whole sea. We develop and test a modelling approach that can account for nutrient loads from land as well as for influences and feedbacks on water quality across the scales of a whole semi-enclosed sea and its coastal zones. We test its applicability in the example cases of the Baltic Sea and one of its local archipelagos, the Archipelago Sea. For the Baltic Sea scale, model validation shows good representation of surface water quality dynamics and a generally moderate model performance for deeper waters. For the Archipelago Sea, management scenario simulations show that successful sea measures may have the most important effects on coastal water quality. This highlights the need to consistently account for whole-sea water-quality dynamics and management effects, in addition to effects of land drivers, in modelling for characterisation and management of local water quality.
Data for wetlandscapes and their changes around the world
2020. Navid Ghajarnia (et al.). Earth System Science Data 12 (2), 1083-1100Artikel
Geography and associated hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes determine the states and dynamics of wetlands and their ecosystem services. The influences of these controls are not limited to just the local scale of each individual wetland but extend over larger landscape areas that integrate multiple wetlands and their total hydrological catchment - the wetlandscape. However, the data and knowledge of conditions and changes over entire wetlandscapes are still scarce, limiting the capacity to accurately understand and manage critical wetland ecosystems and their services under global change. We present a new Wetlandscape Change Information Database (WetCID), consisting of geographic, hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use information and data for 27 wetlandscapes around the world. This combines survey-based local information with geographic shapefiles and gridded datasets of large-scale hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes over whole wetlandscapes. Temporally, WetCID contains 30-year time series of data for mean monthly precipitation and temperature and annual land-use conditions. The survey-based site information includes local knowledge on the wetlands, hydrology, hydroclimate and land uses within each wetlandscape and on the availability and accessibility of associated local data. This novel database (available through PANGAEA https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.907398; Ghajarnia et al., 2019) can support site assessments; cross-regional comparisons; and scenario analyses of the roles and impacts of land use, hydroclimatic and wetland conditions, and changes in whole-wetlandscape functions and ecosystem services.
Priorities and Interactions of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with Focus on Wetlands
2019. Fernando Jaramillo (et al.). Water 11 (3)Artikel
Wetlands are often vital physical and social components of a country's natural capital, as well as providers of ecosystem services to local and national communities. We performed a network analysis to prioritize Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for sustainable development in iconic wetlands and wetlandscapes around the world. The analysis was based on the information and perceptions on 45 wetlandscapes worldwide by 49 wetland researchers of the Global Wetland Ecohydrological Network (GWEN). We identified three 2030 Agenda targets of high priority across the wetlandscapes needed to achieve sustainable development: Target 6.3-Improve water quality; 2.4-Sustainable food production; and 12.2-Sustainable management of resources. Moreover, we found specific feedback mechanisms and synergies between SDG targets in the context of wetlands. The most consistent reinforcing interactions were the influence of Target 12.2 on 8.4-Efficient resource consumption; and that of Target 6.3 on 12.2. The wetlandscapes could be differentiated in four bundles of distinctive priority SDG-targets: Basic human needs, Sustainable tourism, Environmental impact in urban wetlands, and Improving and conserving environment. In general, we find that the SDG groups, targets, and interactions stress that maintaining good water quality and a wise use of wetlandscapes are vital to attaining sustainable development within these sensitive ecosystems.
Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden
2020. Yan Ma (et al.). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17 (18)Artikel
Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm−2), medium (4.5 Wm−2), and high (8.5 Wm−2) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively.