On 23-24 October, EU fisheries ministers will meet to set the quotas for next year's fisheries in the Baltic Sea. This year, the negotiations are likely to be unusually gloomy.

There is already a ban on targeted fishing on all Baltic cod stocks, and a ban on all fishing on the western spring spawning herring. 
On top of that, the European Commission recently announced its proposals to stop all targeted herring fishing in the central Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia next year.

Researcher Henrik Svedäng outside the Parliament. Photo: Lisa Bergqvist

 "This means a closure of almost the entire fishery in the Baltic Sea. Cod fishing is already stopped, as is herring fishing in the western Baltic. Now it is proposed that the remaining herring fishery will be closed, with the exception of the herring fishery in the Gulf of Riga”, says Henrik Svedäng.

From pretty good to disaster

The Commission bases its proposal on ICES scientific estimates, which show that the two herring stocks are too small and in poor condition. During the past 30 years, spawning stock biomass of the Central Baltic herring has been just above or just below the critical level, Blim, which signifies the limit for when the stock is at high risk of crashing. The herring population in the Gulf of Bothnia suffers from a shortage of large, older individuals. The spawning stock biomass has halved since the mid-1990s and is now close to Blim.

 "In less than ten years, the management has gone from pretty good, or at least promising for many stocks, to disaster", says Henrik Svedäng.

According to him, the changing and sensitive environment of the Baltic Sea plays a role in the marine ecosystem and fish populations.

 "But the scientific forecasts have also been far too optimistic. It has proven more difficult than previously thought to conduct sustainable industrial fishing in the Baltic Sea”, he says.

The responsibility lies with the ministers

This spring, ICES recommended catch quotas of up to 63 049 tonnes for herring in the Gulf of Bothnia, and up to 52 459 tonnes for central Baltic herring next year. ICES also warned that such high fishing pressure poses major risks for both stocks.

For the Gulf of Bothnia herring, that fishing pressure would result in a 26% probability that the spawning stack biomass could fall below Blim by 2025. For the Central Baltic herring, the probability would be 29%.

Even if there were no herring fisheries at all in the Gulf of Bothnia and the central Baltic Sea next year, the probability of falling below Blim would still exceed 5% – for both stocks.

In this context, ICES referred to the Baltic Sea Multi-Annual Management Plan (MAP), which states that catch quotas shall in any event be set in such a way as to ensure that there is “a less than a 5% probability of the spawning stock biomass falling below Blim".

“It is good that the Commission's proposal follows the plan decided by the Council of Ministers and Parliament. Now we must hope that the ministers also comply with the regulations they have approved", says Charles Berkow, policy analyst at Stockholm University's Baltic Sea Centre.

By-catch quotas could becom a Trojan horse

This year, the European Commission chose to base its proposal on science – and above all on the MAP. In addition to the closure of targeted fishing for herring in the Central Baltic and the Gulf of Bothnia, the Commission proposes to continue the current closures for targeted fishing on Baltic cod (both western and eastern stocks) and western spring spawning herring next year.

As the pelagic trawl fishery for herring and sprat is de facto a mixed fishery, and as cod is a common by-catch when bottom trawling for plaice, the Commission will specify its proposals for quotas and by-catch quotas for herring, sprat, cod and plaice later this autumn, after consulting ICES.

If bycatch quotas are set too high, they risk becoming a "Trojan horse" that further weakens stocks, says Henrik Svedäng. 

 "The question is, for example, how extensive the sprat fishery in the Baltic Sea can be if herring stocks at the same time need to be protected”, he says.

And even if the by-catch quotas for cod and herring are ultimately set at sufficiently low levels, management must ensure that they are also complied with.

 "The reasoning about bycatch is complicated by the misreporting of species that has occurred, especially in large-scale forage fishing", says Charles Berkow.

Reduced quota in the Gulf of Riga

The European Commission's proposal reflects the seriousness of the poor state of fish stocks in the Baltic Sea. If EU ministers choose to approve the Commission's proposal in October, it will mean that next year's commercial fishing in the Baltic Sea will only target sprat, flatfish and salmon of the stocks with EU quotas – as well as the relatively small herring stock in the Gulf of Riga, for which the Commission proposes to reduce the quota by 20% (to 36,514 tonnes) next year.

Text: Henrik Hamrén

Read more:

Press release: Commission proposes fishing opportunities for 2024 in the Baltic Sea