ICES has released the advice on next years fisheries in the Baltic Sea but the decision on next year's total allowable catch, TAC, will be taken by the European fisheries ministers in October. Photo: Pixabay, Oceana, Mostphotos; Montage: Lisa Bergqvist

The latest stock assessments from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) confirm that virtually all major fish stocks in the Baltic Sea are in poor condition, with the exception of sprat. Since the mid-1960s, the central Baltic herring stock has declined by between 80 and 90 per cent and the herring in Gulf of Bothnia by around 50 per cent, according to the latest estimates.

“It is clear that the sea is out of balance. Both cod stocks have already collapsed, as well as the western herring stock, and the situation is now also acute for the herring in the central Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia”, says Henrik Svedäng, fisheries biologist at Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. "This is very worrying since herring is a keystone species in the Baltic Sea ecosystem.”

Despite the crisis - continued fishing recommended

Each year, the scientists in ICES produce both estimates of stock size and advice on the fishing quotas, the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), that can be authorised in the EU the following year. The headline advice for 2024 is for a reduction in fishing quotas by 39 and 45 per cent for herring in the Gulf of Bothnia and the central Baltic Sea, respectively, compared to this year's level. However, the advice sheets also state that even with closed fisheries – zero catch - it is not certain that the stocks will recover from the current critically low level.

"Unfortunately, many decision-makers only seem to read the numbers and act as if catches at that level would be sustainable," says Charles Berkow, Policy Analyst at Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.

According to an agreement between ICES and the European Commission, the scientists must annually present a modelled range for how much fish can be caught, based on estimates of Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the Multiannual Plan (MAP) for the Baltic Sea. But the scientists must also give a warning if the stocks are in crisis, by indicating if it is not possible to say with 95 percent certainty that the spawning biomass in the following year will be above the critical point B-lim. When stocks reach such a low level, it can be very difficult for them to recover.

“This is the case for both the central and Bothnian herring this time, and it is clear if you read in the main body of the advice. It is a shame that this information is not included directly in the introduction, in an executive summary, which politicians and others would rather read than longer texts burdened with scientific jargon. Now, one can get the impression that it is sustainable to fish 63,049 tonnes of herring in the Gulf of Bothnia and 52,429 tonnes in the central Baltic Sea, when this is not the case at all," says Charles Berkow.

"The situation is alarming"

The herring stock in the western Baltic Sea, as well as the western and eastern cod stock, is so depleted that ICES, as in previous years, does not recommend a quota based on MSY, but a zero catch för next year. Henrik Svedäng is critical of the fact that the same is not done for the central and Bothnian herring.

"We should follow the agreed management plan and close the fishery completely, or reserve it for small-scale fishing for local human consumption”, he says. The situation is alarming for the future functioning of the ecosystem. The quotas recommended in this crisis situation risk destroying the Baltic Sea ecosystem even more."

Policy analyst Charles Berkow and researcher Henrik Svedäng visiting Brussels earlier this year. Photo: Lisa Bergqvist

The latest advice also shows how large uncertainties there are in the stock assessments and other parameters on which the recommendations are based. In the Gulf of Bothnia, for example, it is now estimated that herring stocks have been significantly lower in previous years than was thought at the time.

“There is no logic or forward planning in the advice. In 2021, the quotas were increased by more than 80 per cent in the Gulf of Bothnia and remained at a high level in 2022”, says Henrik Svedäng. “Now it turns out that fishermen did not catch more than two-thirds of the quotas approved by politicians for 2022. In the central Baltic Sea, the catch was too high in 2016-2020. This overfishing was partly dealt with in the 2021 quotas, but then the quotas were increased again last year," says Henrik Svedäng.

The advice from ICES will now be considered by the European Commission and in October the EU countries' politicians, through the Council of Ministers, will decide how large the fishing quotas in the Baltic Sea should be next year.

“Ultimately, it is the politicians who decide. We must hope that they are wise enough to do what can be done to save the fish stocks in the Baltic Sea," says Henrik Svedäng. “However, there is a risk that subpopulations may have already disappeared, given that the total herring stocks in the central Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia have declined so much.”

Text Lisa Bergqvist

Further reading

ANALYSIS: Avoiding a fishing catastrophe – erring on the side of caution?

Scientists in Brussels call for cautious Baltic Sea fisheries