Photo: Tommy Svensson/Mostphotos

Published: 2025-11-06

Text: Henrik Hamrén

The President of the Council of Ministers, Danish Fisheries Minister Jacob Jensen, was satisfied when next year's TACs for the Baltic Sea were presented at the ministerial meeting in Luxembourg on October 28. 

According to Jensen, the ministers' night-time deliberations resulted in a ‘balanced compromise’ between the needs of commercial fishing and the long-term health of fish stocks.

‘Wanted to go further’

For all stocks – except plaice, salmon and the smaller herring stock in the Gulf of Riga – the Council of Ministers decided on higher TACs than those proposed by the European Commission.

It was the high TACs for herring and sprat stocks in particular that led Sweden to be the only Member State to ultimately vote against the agreement.

Even so, the Swedish Minister for Rural Affairs, Peter Kullgren (KD), was still in favour of the TAC for Central Baltic herring being lower than the levels presented in the ”headline advice” from the scientists at ICES (International Council for Exploration of the Sea). 

– But Sweden wanted to go further. We thought the Commission's proposal was fundamentally sound, he said after the negotiations.

Harder for central Baltic herring to recover

For the herring stock in the central Baltic Sea, the European Commission proposed the same quota as last year: 83,800 tonnes. However, next year's quota ended up at just over 96,000 tonnes, an increase of 15%.

Henrik Svedäng

– The Commission's proposal would probably have led to an increase in stock biomass next year. Now, the stock is unlikely to recover as much as it otherwise would have done, says Henrik Svedäng, a fisheries researcher at the Baltic Sea Centre.

He points out that the spawning biomass of the central Baltic herring is below the target level for productive fish stocks (Btrigger) set out in EU regulations.

– This decision reduces the stock’s potential to grow above Btrigger, he says.

’Chancy’ TAC increase for sprat

The largest TAC increase compared to last year was introduced for sprat: a 45% increase to 201,975 tonnes. The Commission’s proposal was to maintain lats year’s TAC of 139,500 tonnes.

– This substantial increase is chancy, to say the least, comments Henrik Svedäng, and his fellow researchers at the Baltic Sea Centre agree.

Åsa Nilsson Austin

– There is considerable uncertainty surrounding ICES' stock estimates for sprat, as explained in the advice. In recent years, sprat spawning biomass has declined, while recruitment has shown a downward trend. Now there are signs of a possible slight increase, but the scientific evidence is based on a single trawl survey, says fisheries researcher Åsa Nilsson Austin. 

TAC might increase for Bothnian herring

For the heavily pressed herring in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Commission proposed a TAC of 25,500 tonnes (a reduction of 62%). However, the ministers decided to only reduce it by 40%, to 39,100 tonnes. 

In addition, the TAC is set as a ”preliminary TAC” until 31 October 2026. After that, with new scientific advice from ICES and a new Council decision, additional TAC may be added. This means that the total TAC for 2026 may end up at a maximum of 55,869 tonnes. 

Violates EU legislation

Even with the current TAC of 39,100 tonnes, the Council of Ministers is violating the so-called ‘five percent rule’ in Article 4.6 of the multiannual management plan (MAP) for the Baltic Sea.

The ‘five percent rule’ is intended as an emergency brake when a fish stock is in serious trouble. Quotas must be set so that there is a less than 5% probability that a stock's spawning biomass will fall below the last safety level, Blim. 

– It is remarkable that the Council is not complying with its own legislation, which was negotiated and came into force almost ten years ago, says Sara Söderström, fisheries researcher at the Baltic Sea Centre.

Did not utilise ICES's ‘full potential’

The Council’s chair, Jacob Jensen, pointed out that the TAC for Gulf of Bothnia herring was actually set lower than the levels in the ICES advice. 

– We have not utilised the full potential of the scientific advice provided by ICES, he said.

The ‘full potential’ refers to the quota range specified at the top of ICES' scientific advice, commonly referred to as the ‘headline advice’. 

For Bothnian herring, the ICES' headline advice was 55,869 – 62,648 tonnes, which corresponds to a 9% – 10% probability that the spawning biomass will fall below Blim – i.e. double the risk of what is acceptable under current legislation.

– The agreed TAC is below ICES headline advice, but the legal TAC would be at a maximum of 25,500 tonnes, just as the Commission proposed. The TAC that was proposed by the Commission was the highest possible. Anything above that violates Article 4.6 of the management plan, says Sara Söderström.

Sara Söderström

ICES headline advice is based on instructions given by the client (i.e. the European Commission). These instructions are very specific about which criteria should (and should not) be used when ICES produces forecasts for the development of fish stocks at different fishing pressures. 

– This means that ICES headline advice does not necessarily take into account current legislation, such as the “five percent rule” in the management plan. This is why the headline advice differs so much from the Commission's proposal regarding the Baltic herring, says Sara Söderström. 

Ignored ICES warnings

According to Charles Berkow, policy analyst at the Baltic Sea Centre, this year's TAC decision for Gulf of Bothnia herring is based either on a misunderstanding or a distortion of the scientific evidence. 

He points out that further down in the scientific advice, ICES emphasises a number of serious uncertainties in the forecasts and warns against allowing excessive fishing pressure. 

– Ministers are fixated on the ICES headline advice, but are ignoring the many warnings and reservations about risks and uncertainties that ICES also expresses further down in the advice text, he says, continuing:

Charles Berkow. Foto: Lisa Bergqvist

– They also disregard the main objective of the EU's fisheries policy, which is to rebuild stocks to productive levels and minimise the negative impact of fishing on the marine ecosystem.

Sweden: ‘Change the scientific advice’

The question of how ICES advice should be interpreted – and what instructions the Commission should give to ICES – has emerged as an increasingly important issue in fisheries management, both in Sweden and at EU level. 

Both the EU Commissioner responsible, Costas Kadis, and the Chair of the ICES Advisory Committee raised the issue of misinterpretation of scientific advice at the EU meeting ”Our Baltic” in Stockholm earlier this year.

Swedish politicians have also recently begun to talk more and more about the need to change scientific advice. It is included in the government's latest maritime bill, and Peter Kullgren also raised the issue in a special statement during the TAC negotiations.

No quota reductions for most endangered stocks 

Of the ten TAC-regulated fish stocks in the Baltic Sea, three are in particularly poor condition: western cod, eastern cod and western spring-spawning herring.

A few decades ago, these stocks were healthy and extremely productive, with annual catches numbering in the tens of thousands, and even hundreds of thousands of tonnes. Nowadays, all of these stocks have collapsed. Targeted fishing has been stopped and the stocks are only given so-called by-catch quotas, since  they still turn up as unwanted catches in other fisheries.

Although the by-catch TACs are only a few hundred tonnes each – 788 tonnes for western herring and 430 and 266 tonnes for eastern and western cod respectively – the Commission proposed that current by-catches should be reduced by 62–84%. ICES’ headline advice for each of these stocks is zero catch. However, the Council chose to keep last year's by-catch TACs unchanged for all three stocks. 

An important aspect of the collapsed western Baltic herring stock, is the fisheries in the North Sea. The western herring spawn in the southern Baltic Sea – but during the rest of the year it migrates across large areas, often all the way up to the North Sea, where it is caught in extensive pelagic trawl fishing. Most of the catch is in the North Sea.

– Germany has long demanded that herring TACs in the North Sea be set with greater consideration for western spring-spawning herring. The TACs for the North Sea will be negotiated at a later date. It remains to be seen whether the countries that dominate fishing there will pay attention to ICES advice on temporal and spatial restrictions for the recovery of the western Baltic herring, says Charles Berkow.