New thesis: Higher Education Still Matters – but Its Impact Is Changing
Higher education has traditionally been viewed as a reliable pathway to better jobs, higher incomes, and increased social mobility. But how has the role of education evolved in recent decades and what does this mean for inequality and opportunity today?
In her doctoral dissertation, sociologist Xiaojie Xu explores how the relationship between education, labor market outcomes, and social mobility has changed since the since the late 20th century, both within Sweden and across the globe.
"Education remains essential, but its impact is changing," says Xu. "As more people pursue higher education, and as the nature of work evolves, the way education affects our lives and opportunities has become more complex."
The dissertation comprises three studies. The first investigates intergenerational income mobility in Sweden, revealing differing trends for men and women. While Swedish men have experienced increased income mobility compared to their parents, women's mobility has declined significantly.
Xu attributes this partly to the increasing returns to education for women, as gender equality in the labor market continues to improve. Paradoxically, however, this can reinforce inequalities rooted in family background, since educational attainment in higher education is closely linked to family background.
The second study examines the connection between education and occupation in Sweden between 1960 and 2013. Xu finds that the link has strengthened at the top end of the labor market but weakened considerably for those with vocational education. This indicates that vocational training programs no longer guarantee clear occupational outcomes, posing challenges for educational and labor market policies.
Xu’s third study analyzes trends in the "college wage premium", the earnings advantage gained by higher education, across 49 countries from 1980 to 2022. She identifies a general decline in this premium, especially notable in Latin America and Eastern Europe since 2000. In Western countries, the premium rose initially but has flattened or decreased in recent years.
"These findings suggest that higher education still matters, but its economic payoff is no longer growing as consistently as before," Xu says. "This shift calls for careful reconsideration of educational policy and its alignment with labor market demands."
Xu emphasizes that simply expanding access to higher education is no longer sufficient, especially where the college wage premium is shrinking. "Education must meaningfully connect to the evolving realities of the labor market," Xu explains. "In the age of AI and rapid global trade transformation, it's crucial for governments and institutions to rethink education – not just as credentials, but as a foundation for building adaptable, future-oriented skills."
Contact
Xiaojie Xu, PhD Candidate in Sociology, Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University, xiaojie.xu@sofi.su.se
Last updated: May 6, 2025
Source: Md