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Jonathan Sullivan, University of Nottingham.

The Taiwan Strait has been subject to the threat of militarized conflict for seven decades. Periodic crises aside that outcome has always been avoided. Despite intractable positions and latent low-key threat, the two sides of the Strait have become intertwined economically, with each other and with the US. While sovereignty preferences remain irreconcilable, decades of predications about coming conflict have always been proven wrong. Yet, conflict in the Strait is now more likely than any time since 1950. This talk will establish why the unthinkable is looking increasingly unavoidable.       

Dr Jonathan Sullivan is head of China programmes at the Asia Research Institute and assoc prof of politics and IR at the University of Nottingham. He is former director of the China Policy Institute and regularly writes, comments and briefs on China/Taiwan issues.