## About me

I am professor of **Mathematical statistics** (Statistical science) at Stockholm University. I am formally retired from October 2009, but re-employed part-time since then to give one or two courses per year, and for involvement in palaeo-climate research.

## My scientific interests

My interests are in **statistical modelling and statistical methods**, both **theory and applications**.

Fields of active research or particular competence are:

- Inferential principles,
- Exponential families, theory and applications, (writing a book)
- Climate models and paleoclimate statistics, (also supervising for Ph.D.)
- Exploratory factor analysis (article published 2016)
- Biostatistics, in particular for molecular biology
- Chemometrics (regression and multivariate calibration),
- Sampling survey inference (in particular model-based inference)
- Statistical methods in stereology,
- Applied statistics in statistical consulting. (giving annual course)

### Courses given recently

During fall 2016 I give as usual my course in **Statistical Consulting**, involving clients and projects from the departmental consulting service.

Previous academic years I also gave that course. I was also responsible for a study group of Ph.D. students on the topic of sampling theory, spring 2015.

In the period 2007 to 2012 I gave two courses per year on Master/Ph.D. level:

**Statistical models**, based on my own lecture notes on parametric statistical inference and exponential families, and the course in

**Statistical Consulting**, see above.

2012 and 2013 I gave part of the Linear models course.

Autumn 2004 I gave a course on **Statistical theory for exponential families**. Spring term 2005 I taught **Linear statistical models** and Statistical consulting methodology (this time in English), and led a course on **Statistics for microarrays**. Spring term 2006 I taught Linear statistical models and **Principles of statistical inference** (graduate level; based on a book manuscript by David Cox).

### Some recent talks

Sept. 2015 I gave a talk at the Past Earth Network (PEN) Conference in Crewe, England, jointly with Anders Moberg (Bolin Centre): Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data.

Dec. 2015 I gave a talk for master students i Statistics, SU: Statistical and other models for palaeo-climate research.

June 2016 I gave a talk for students participating in the Research Academy for Young Scientists (RAYS) workshop, Strängnäs.

December 2016 I gave most of an intensive 3-days course on statistical inference theory for Ph.D students in statistics, with emphasis on exponential family models and on hypothesis testing.

Recent Ph.D. students under my supervision,

and their areas of research:

Marie Linder (Ph.D. dissertation 15 Jan 1999):

(Bilinear regression and second order calibration)

Anders Björkström (Licentiate exam 1998, PhD dissertation 28 Sept 2007):

(Generalized ridge regression and other regression methods for near-collinear data)

Niklas Norén (Licentiate exam 2005, PhD dissertation 7 May 2007):

(Searching in databases for information on side effects of medications; co-advisor Ralph Edwards)

Anna Stoltenberg (Licentiate exam 23 Sept. 2009):

(Statistical analysis of ordered categorical data in pharmaceutical trials; co-advisor Olivier Guilbaud, AstraZeneca)

Jelena Bojarova (Licentiate exam 2004, PhD dissertation 4 June 2010):

(Toward sequential data assimilation for NWP models using Kalman filter tools)

Ekaterina Fetisova (started 2012, Licentiate exam 2015):

(Statistical modelling in palaeo-climatology; I am co-advisor)

### Contact information

E-mail address: rolfs at math.su.se, or rolfsundberg1942 at telia.com

Older webpage at http://staff.math.su.se/rolfs/ including CV and Publication list with links

I can also be found on Researchgate

## Teaching

Academic year 2016–2017 l will give the course on Statistical Consulting.

I will also continue supervising Ph.D. student Katarina Fetisova.

## Research

## Research activities 2015-2017

Palaeo-climate research: Inference about palaeo-climate simulation models by comparison with instrumental and proxy climate data. In particular, I'm one of the authors for a group of three papers published in *Climate of the Past*, 2012 (2) and 2015 (first author of Part 1 - Theory):

Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium — Parts 1-3 Open access

Paper with Uwe Feldmann (Saarland Univ.) on factor analysis published June 2016 in Journal of Multivariate Analysis, vol. 148, pp 49–59: Exploratory factor analysis – Parameter estimation and scores prediction with high-dimensional data. Open access

Exponential families: I'm writing on a monograph for Cambridge University Press: *Statistical modelling by exponential families.* A much overlapping manuscript exists as Lecture notes for the course Statistical models, last version Nov. 2016. An accepted journal manuscript for The American Statistician also belongs to this area: A note on ''shaved dice'' inference (to appear 2017).