A selection from Stockholm University publication database

• Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka

  2023. Louise C. Sime (et al.). Climate of the Past 19 (4), 883-900

  Article

  The Last Interglacial (LIG) period, which had higher summer solar insolation than today, has been suggested as the last time that Arctic summers were ice free. However, the latest suite of Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project 6 Paleoclimate (CMIP6-PMIP4) simulations of the LIG produce a wide range of Arctic summer minimum sea ice area (SIA) results, with a 30% to 96% reduction from the pre-industrial (PI) period. Sea ice proxies are also currently neither abundant nor consistent enough to determine the most realistic state. Here we estimate LIG minimum SIA indirectly through the use of 21 proxy records for LIG summer surface air temperature (SSAT) and 11 CMIP6-PMIP4 models for the LIG. We use two approaches. First, we use two tests to determine how skilful models are at simulating reconstructed Delta SSAT from proxy records (where Delta refers to LIG-PI). This identifies a positive correlation between model skill and the magnitude of Delta SIA: the most reliable models simulate a larger sea ice reduction. Averaging the two most skilful models yields an average SIA of 1 :3 x 10(6) km(2) for the LIG. This equates to a 4 :5 x 10(6) km(2) or 79% SIA reduction from the PI to the LIG. Second, across the 11 models, the averaged Delta SSAT at the 21 proxy locations and the pan-Arctic average Delta SSAT are inversely correlated with Delta SIA ( r = - 0.86 and 0.79, respectively). In other words, the models show that a larger Arctic warming is associated with a greater sea ice reduction. Using the proxy-record-averaged Delta SSAT of 4 :5 +/- 1 :7K and the relationship between Delta SSAT and Delta SIA suggests an estimated sea ice reduction of 4:2 +/- 1:4 x 10(6) km(2) or about 74% less sea ice than the PI period. The mean proxy-location Delta SSAT is well correlated with the Arctic-wide Delta SSAT north of 60 degrees N (r = D 0:97), and this relationship is used to show that the mean proxy record Delta SSAT is equivalent to an Arctic-wide warming of 3 :7 +/- 1 :5K at the LIG compared to the PI period. Applying this Arctic-wide Delta SSAT and its modelled relationship to Delta SIA, results in a similar estimate of LIG sea ice reduction of 4 :1 +/- 1 :2 x 10(6) km(2). These LIG climatological minimum SIA of 1.3 to 1.5 x 10(6) km(2) are close to the definition of a summer ice-free Arctic, which is a maximum sea ice extent of less than 1 x 10(6) km(2). The results of this study thus suggest that the Arctic likely experienced a mixture of ice-free and near-ice-free summers during the LIG.

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• Similarities and Differences in Arctic Sea-Ice Loss During the Solar-Forced Last Interglacial Warming (127 Kyr BP) and CO₂-Forced Future Warming

  2023. Marie Sicard (et al.). Geophysical Research Letters 50 (24)

  Article

  Based on a 7-member global circulation model ensemble from CMIP6/PMIP4, we compare the regional distribution of Arctic sea ice between a simulation representing the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate, with solar-forced warming, and an idealized future CO2-forced simulation with a similar annual sea-ice volume. The two simulations feature small but robust differences in the Central Arctic and Baffin Bay during summer, and larger differences at the sea-ice margins in the sub-Arctic Atlantic and North Pacific sectors during winter. Our results indicate that, under both forcings, sea ice persists north of Greenland until late summer, suggesting that the assumption that this region is the Last Ice Area is robust and holds for other climate states. However, we show that processes influencing sea-ice distribution in winter, such as Atlantification and sea-ice drift, differ and need to be further investigated.

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