The CASP16 experiment provided the first opportunity to benchmark AlphaFold3. In contrast to AlphaFold2, AlphaFold3 can predict the structure of non-protein molecules. According to the benchmark presented by the developers, it is expected to perform slightly better than AlphaFold2 for proteins. In this study, we assess the performance of AlphaFold3 using both automatic server submissions (AF3-server) and manual predictions from the Elofsson group (Elofsson). All predictions were generated via the AlphaFold3 web server, with manual interventions applied to large targets and ligands. Compared to AlphaFold2-based methods, we found that AlphaFold3 performs slightly better for protein complexes. However, when massive sampling is applied to AlphaFold2, the difference disappears. It was also noted that, according to the official ranking from CASP, the AF3-server performs better than AlphaFold2 for easier targets, but not for harder targets. Furthermore, the performance of the AF3-server is comparable to the best methods when considering the top-ranked predictions, but slightly behind when examining the best among the five submitted models. Here, there exist targets where AF3-server, the top-ranked method, is worse than lower-ranked models, indicating that a venue for progress could be to develop better strategies for identifying the best out of the generated models. When using AF3-server to predict the stoichiometry of larger protein complexes, the accuracy is limited, especially for heteromeric targets. When analyzing the predictions including nucleic acids, it was found that, in general, the accuracy is relatively low. However, the AF3-server performance was not far behind that of the top-ranked method. In summary, AF3-server offers a user-friendly tool that provides predictions comparable to state-of-the-art methods in all categories of CASP.

Molecular structure generation is a fundamental problem that involves determining the 3D positions of molecules’ constituents. It has crucial biological applications, such as molecular docking, protein folding, and molecular design. Recent advances in generative modeling, such as diffusion models and flow matching, have made great progress on these tasks by modeling molecular conformations as a distribution. In this work, we focus on flow matching and adopt an energy-based perspective to improve training and inference of structure generation models. Our view results in a mapping function, represented by a deep network, that is directly learned to iteratively map random configurations, i.e. samples from the source distribution, to target structures, i.e. points in the data manifold. This yields a conceptually simple and empirically effective flow matching setup that is theoretically justified and has interesting connections to fundamental properties such as idempotency and stability, as well as the empirically useful techniques such as structure refinement in AlphaFold. Experiments on protein docking as well as protein backbone generation consistently demonstrate the method’s effectiveness, where it outperforms recent baselines of task-associated flow matching and diffusion models, using a similar computational budget.

Molecular structure generation is a fundamental problem that involves determining the 3D positions of molecules’ constituents. It has crucial biological applications, such as molecular docking, protein folding, and molecular design. Recent advances in generative modeling, such as diffusion models and flow matching, have made great progress on these tasks by modeling molecular conformations as a distribution. In this work, we focus on flow matching and adopt an energy-based perspective to improve training and inference of structure generation models. Our view results in a mapping function, represented by a deep network, that is directly learned to iteratively map random configurations, i.e. samples from the source distribution, to target structures, i.e. points in the data manifold. This yields a conceptually simple and empirically effective flow matching setup that is theoretically justified and has interesting connections to fundamental properties such as idempotency and stability, as well as the empirically useful techniques such as structure refinement in AlphaFold. Experiments on protein docking as well as protein backbone generation consistently demonstrate the method’s effectiveness, where it outperforms recent baselines of task-associated flow matching and diffusion models, using a similar computational budget.

The Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) brings together a diverse group of scientists, from deep learning experts to NMR specialists, all aimed at developing accurate prediction algorithms that can effectively characterize the structural aspects of biomolecules relevant to their functions. Engagement within the CASP community has traditionally been limited to the prediction season and the conference, with limited discourse in the 1.5 years between CASP seasons. CASP special interest groups (SIGs) were established in 2023 to encourage continuous dialogue within the community. The online seminar series has drawn global participation from across disciplines and career stages. This has facilitated cross-disciplinary discussions fostering collaborations. The archives of these seminars have become a vital learning tool for newcomers to the field, lowering the barrier to entry.