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• Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

  2023. Maxim Kan. European Journal of Population

  Artikel

  The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

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• Are Gender Attitudes and Gender Division of Housework and Childcare Related to Fertility Intentions in Kazakhstan?

  Maxim Kan.

  Evidence of positive associations between gender egalitarian attitudes or a more equal division of housework/childcare and short-term fertility intentions has been found in developed countries in Europe and East Asia. This study extends the literature to the context of a developing country from the post-communist region: Kazakhstan, which has progressed well in public gender equality but may not have developed private gender equality to the same extent as more developed countries. The study explores how 1) gender attitudes, 2) gender behaviour (housework and childcare division), and 3) consistency between gender attitudes and gender behaviour are associated with short-term fertility intentions in this country. Kazakhstan’s Generations and Gender Survey of 2020 was used for the analyses. The dependent variable was treated as an interval measure, where intentions move along a continuum of certainty. Linear regressions were employed to test the hypotheses. The results show that gender-egalitarian ideology was negatively associated with short-term fertility intentions for women with two and more children. Likewise, a more equal division of housework was negatively associated with short-term fertility intentions for both women and men, whereas a more equal sharing of childcare was negatively associated with men’s short-term fertility intentions. Also, in contrast to studies in more developed contexts, an egalitarian match of gender ideology and behaviour (either housework or childcare) was negatively associated with short-term childbearing intentions for both women and men. Overall, greater gender equality in the family has a negative relationship with short-term fertility intentions in Kazakhstan. The study provides new and compelling evidence about the relationship between gender equality and fertility in a context that has not previously been studied.

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• Religion and Contraceptive Use in Kazakhstan: A Study of Mediating Mechanisms

  Maxim Kan.

  A resurgence of religiosity has been observed in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. However, since the late 1990s, there has been a lack of research on the impact of religion on contraceptive use and the differences in such use across religious groups in the country and Central Asia. The two major religious groups, Islam and Christianity, have closely aligned with the country's two main ethnicities, Kazakhs and Russians, which have shown significant variations in fertility development and stages of demographic transition. This study utilizes Kazakhstan's Generations and Gender Survey 2020 to examine the variations in contraceptive use among different religious affiliations and explore the potential factors behind these differences. Causal mediation analysis is employed separately for women and men. The findings reveal that Muslims exhibit lower contraceptive use compared to Christians. While higher demand for children, increased religiosity, and socioeconomic factors partially explain these differences, existing theories fail to fully account for the diverse patterns of family planning observed within the same national context.

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