Nonviolent movements not only win — they win faster
Nonviolent resistance movements are not only more likely to succeed than their violent counterparts — they also tend to achieve success more quickly. This is shown in a new study led by Ilker Kalin at Stockholm University, published in collaboration with international colleagues in Peace and Change.
The study investigates the comparative effectiveness of violent versus nonviolent resistance and what factors accelerate success in nonviolent movements. Past research has already shown that nonviolent resistance is more likely to achieve its goals; this study highlights an equally critical point: such movements also tend to reach their objectives in a significantly shorter time frame.
“We wanted to shift the conversation beyond whether resistance works to how long it takes, and what can be done to accelerate success, particularly for nonviolent movements,” says Ilker Kalin, visiting scholar at the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies (SUITS).
The research analyses 381 nonviolent and violent campaigns – with high-stakes political goals such as regime change, expulsion of foreign occupiers, or self-determination – from 1945 to 2013. They find that within a year of launch, only 9 per cent of violent campaigns achieve their objectives, compared to 30 per cent of nonviolent ones. Over three years, this gap widens: 51 per cent of nonviolent movements succeed, while only 13 per cent of violent campaigns do.
“Civil resistance is rarely swift or easy. It is often a prolonged, uphill struggle that carries both personal and societal costs. The timeline for meaningful change varies, from months to years, as seen in successful cases such as Chile, Serbia, Georgia, and Tunisia. Setting realistic expectations and building movements capable of enduring over time remains essential,” says Ilker Kalin.
Participation matters
The study reinforces a clear message: numbers matter. Campaigns that begin with or sustain high levels of participation are significantly more likely to achieve rapid victories. While this might seem intuitive, the implications are strategic, especially for organisers deciding when to initiate public resistance.
“Activists may benefit from waiting until they’ve built a broad base of support before launching visible action,” says Kalin. “Combined with our findings on campaign duration, this also suggests that realistic planning to sustain participation over time is crucial.”
International support can speed up success
Support from major powers can also reduce the time it takes for nonviolent campaigns to achieve their goals. While such backing does not guarantee success, it can tilt the balance. However, the influence of global powers is double-edged: external support for incumbent governments can entrench authoritarian rule and obstruct democratic change, as other studies have shown.
“Our findings suggest that international actors play a more complex role than often assumed,” says Kalin. “There’s a real opportunity, and responsibility, for democratic powers to use their influence more strategically in support of civil resistance.”
Important caveats
The authors emphasize that the findings should be interpreted as probabilistic rather than deterministic. While the data highlights powerful trends, outcomes still vary widely depending on national context and political dynamics. Furthermore, the study focuses exclusively on “maximalist” movements – those seeking major political change – and does not include smaller or issue-specific protests.
“Nonetheless, the research offers a contribution to a growing field of scholarship that explores how civil resistance movements challenge entrenched power, particularly under authoritarian conditions. It may also offer useful insights for ongoing protest movements around the world,” says Ilker Kalin.
Read the study Speeding Up Success: Analyzing Factors Influencing the Duration of Nonviolent Movements in Peace and Change.
More about Ilker Kalin’s research
Last updated: June 16, 2025
Source: Communications Office