I urval från Stockholms universitets publikationsdatabas

• The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea-Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

  2020. Eva Ehrnsten (et al.). Global Change Biology 26 (4), 2235-2250

  Artikel

  Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012-2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid-21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic-pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.

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• Benthic-pelagic coupling in coastal seas - Modelling macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing in response to organic matter supply

  2019. Eva Ehrnsten (et al.). Journal of Marine Systems 196, 36-47

  Artikel

  Benthic macrofauna is an important component linking pelagic and benthic ecosystems, especially in productive coastal areas. Through their metabolism and behaviour, benthic animals affect biogeochemical fluxes between the sediment and water column. Mechanistic models that quantify these benthic-pelagic links are imperative to understand the functioning of coastal ecosystems. In this study, we develop a dynamic model of benthic macrofauna to quantify the relationship between organic matter input and benthic macrofaunal biomass in the coastal zone. The model simulates the carbon dynamics of three functional groups of benthic macrofauna and their sediment food sources and is forced by a hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model simulating pelagic physical and biological dynamics. The model reproduces measured time-series of macrofaunal biomass from two coastal sites with contrasting sedimentation in the Baltic Sea in 1993-2005 with comparatively high accuracy, including a major increase at one of the sites dominated by the bivalve Limecola (Macoma) balthica. This shift in community composition suggests altered pathways of organic matter degradation: 39% of simulated sedimentation was mineralised by macrofauna in 2005 compared to 10% in 1995. From the early 2000s onward macrofaunal biomass seems to be food-limited, as ca 80% of organic carbon sedimentation was processed by the deposit-feeding macrofauna at both sites. This model is a first step to help quantify the role of macrofauna in marine coastal ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycles and build predictive capacity of the effects of anthropogenic stressors, such as eutrophication and climate change, on coastal ecosystems.

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• Combined Effects of Environmental Drivers on Marine Trophic Groups - A Systematic Model Comparison

  2019. Eva Ehrnsten, Barbara Bauer, Bo G. Gustafsson. Frontiers in Marine Science 6

  Artikel

  The responses of food webs to simultaneous changes in several environmental drivers are still poorly understood. As a contribution to filling this knowledge gap, we investigated the major pathways through which two interlinked environmental drivers, eutrophication and climate, affect the biomass and community composition of fish and benthic macrofauna. For this aim, we conducted a systematic sensitivity analysis using two models simulating the dynamics of benthic and pelagic food webs in the Baltic Sea. We varied environmental forcing representing primary productivity, oxygen conditions and water temperature in all possible combinations, over a range representative of expected changes during the 21st century. Both models indicated that increased primary productivity leads to biomass increase in all parts of the system, however, counteracted by expanding hypoxia. Effects of temperature were complex, but generally small compared to the other drivers. Similarities across models give confidence in the main results, but we also found differences due to different representations of the food web in the two models. While both models predicted a shift in benthic community composition toward an increased abundance of Limecola (Macoma) balthica with increasing productivity, the effects on deposit-feeding and predatory benthic groups depended on the presence of fish predators in the model. The model results indicate that nutrient loads are a stronger driver of change for ecosystem functions in the Baltic Sea than climate change, but it is important to consider the combined effects of these drivers for proper management of the marine environment.

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• Understanding Environmental Changes in Temperate Coastal Seas

  2020. Eva Ehrnsten (et al.). Frontiers in Marine Science 7

  Artikel

  Coastal seas are highly productive systems, providing an array of ecosystem services to humankind, such as processing of nutrient effluents from land and climate regulation. However, coastal ecosystems are threatened by human-induced pressures such as climate change and eutrophication. In the coastal zone, the fluxes and transformations of nutrients and carbon sustaining coastal ecosystem functions and services are strongly regulated by benthic biological and chemical processes. Thus, to understand and quantify how coastal ecosystems respond to environmental change, mechanistic modeling of benthic biogeochemical processes is required. Here, we discuss the present model capabilities to quantitatively describe how benthic fauna drives nutrient and carbon processing in the coastal zone. There are a multitude of modeling approaches of different complexity, but a thorough mechanistic description of benthic-pelagic processes is still hampered by a fundamental lack of scientific understanding of the diverse interactions between the physical, chemical and biological processes that drive biogeochemical fluxes in the coastal zone. Especially shallow systems with long water residence times are sensitive to the activities of benthic organisms. Hence, including and improving the description of benthic biomass and metabolism in sediment diagenetic as well as ecosystem models for such systems is essential to increase our understanding of their response to environmental changes and the role of coastal sediments in nutrient and carbon cycling. Major challenges and research priorities are (1) to couple the dynamics of zoobenthic biomass and metabolism to sediment reactive-transport in models, (2) to test and validate model formulations against real-world data to better incorporate the context-dependency of processes in heterogeneous coastal areas in models and (3) to capture the role of stochastic events.

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• Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century

  2021. Maciej T. Tomczak (et al.). Limnology and Oceanography

  Artikel

  The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20(th) century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic-dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic-benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far-reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long-term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The reference ecosystem identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.

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• Threatened habitat types in Finland 2018: the Baltic Sea

  2020. Aarno Kotilainen, Eva Erhnsten, Petri Vahteri.

  Rapport

  This report is a partial translation of the final report in Finnish on threatened habitat types (Threatened habitat types in Finland 2018, Part II: Descriptions of habitat types, The Finnish Environment 5/2018) that presents a total of 420 habitat types. This report includes all the evaluated habitat types of the Baltic Sea, as well as six new marine habitat types, which were described but not yet evaluated (NE). Also included are habitat types regarded as of least concern (LC) and those with deficient data (DD).

  For each habitat type a description, distribution map, photo, and the reasoning behind the assessment result are presented. The descriptions of the habitat types include their characteristics, geographical variation, connectivity to other habitat types, occurrence in Finland, reasons for being threatened and future threats, trend in the state of the habitat type, correspondence of the habitats type with habitat types covered by statutory protection, and whether the habitat type is one for which Finland has an international responsibility.

  Part I of the final report (in Finnish Suomen luontotyyppien uhanalaisuus 2018, SY 5/2018 and in English Threatened Habitat Types in Finland 2018, FE 2/2019) presents the assessment method for threatened habitat types, results and reasoning of the assessment, and proposals for measures prepared by the experts groups. In the whole country 186 habitats types were assessed as threatened (48% of the number of habitats types). The share of threatened habitat types is much larger in southern Finland (59%) than in northern Finland (32%). The assessment was conducted by broadly-based expert groups in 2016–2018.

  This was the second assessment of threatened habitat types in Finland. This assessment was conducted using the international IUCN Red List of Ecosystems method. Because of the new assessment method, the results of the first and second assessment of threatened habitat types are not directly comparable with each other. The conclusion that can be made, however, is that the decline and degradation of habitats has not diminished.

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