Research group SU-InfDisMod-group
The infectious disease modelling and analysis group at Stockholm University.
Group description
The Department of Mathematics at Stockholm University has a long history of mathematical modelling and statistical analysis of infectious diseases, dating back to the ground breaking paper by von Bahr and Martin-Löf (1980). The greater Stockholm region also hosts several groups and institutions dedicated to infectious disease research: we collaborate with scientists at Karolinska Institutet, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) and the European Centre for Disease Control and prevention (ECDC). The group also has close ties to many international hubs including: Aalto University (Finland), Los Alamos NL (US), RIVM (Netherlands), RKI (Germany), University of Florida (US), University of Nottingham (UK), University of Oslo (Norway), and EpiConcept (France).
Scientific contents
The group covers many different areas of infectious disease modelling and analysis, both in terms of diseases and in terms of mathematical methodology. Methodologies used and developed include dynamic modelling using Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models and its extensions, data mining in surveillance data to detect emerging outbreaks, real-time estimation of parameters during outbreaks.
Current projects include work on, e.g., Covid-19, HIV, Hepatitis C, Chlamydia. The types of questions being analysed include: effects of population heterogeneity, herd immunity, now-casting, surveillance, effects of prevention and the estimation of disease specific parameters such as incubation period, generation time and serial interval
Group members
See all current group members below.
The permanent members are Tom Britton (prof, group leader), Michael Höhle (prof) and Pieter Trapman (associate prof).
Former members (since 2018): Martina Favero (now Warwick University, UK), Federica Giardina (now Erasmus University, Netherlands), Disa Hansson (now FHM), Abid Lashari (now West-Sweden Public Health), KaYin Leung (now RIVM), Theresa Stocks (now private sector Germany), Yun Jun Zhang (now University of Peking)
Events
NordicMathCovid regular meetings. See NordicMathCovid for more details.
Our group has a journal club where we go through a research paper once every four weeks.
Funding
Current external funding:
- Swedish Research Council (grant 2020-04744): 2021-2024. 3.6 Msek, PI: Tom Britton
- Nordic Research Agency (NordForsk, grant 105572): 2020-2022. 8.8 Msek, PI: Tom Britton. See NordicMathCovid
- Swedish Research Council: 2016-2020: 2 Msek, PI: Michael Höhle
Software with contributions from group members
"surveillance" – an R package containing statistical methods for the modeling and monitoring of time series of counts, proportions and categorical data, as well as for the modeling of continuous-time point processes of epidemic phenomena.
"epitweetr" – an R package for the Early Detection of Public Health Threats from Twitter Data.
"scanstatistics" – an R package for space-time anomaly detection using scan statistics.
Online Now-casting of ICU and case-fatalities of Covid in Sweden
Group members
Group managers
Tom Britton
Professor
Members
Fanny Bergström
Phd Student
Dongni Zhang
PhD Student
Publications
Recent publications by current and former members
Analysis of the early Covid-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points.
Küchenhoff H, Günther F, Höhle M, Bender A (2021). Epidemiology and Infection, 149:e68.