Research project EU-Climatic
The European Green Deal aimed to steer the EU toward a sustainable future and to align its objectives with the Paris Agreement. However, not a year into the development of the EGD, the EU was hit by COVID-19, Russia invading Ukraine, and high inflation. EU Climatic seeks to understand how turbulence has influenced the EU climate transition.
Rising to the Challenge of the Climate Transition: EU's Leadership in a Just and Effective Transformation towards Climate Neutrality amidst Turbulence, Crises, and Political Conflicts.
The European Green Deal (EGD), launched by the European Commission in 2019 with the goal to make the EU the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 represents the EU’s attempt to achieve green transformation in line with the Paris Agreement and the reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With the adoption of the European climate law in 2021 followed by the ‘Fit for 55’ package in 2023, the implementation of the EGD has entered a new phase and faces new challenges. The EU is striving to attain its climate objectives in a world plagued by constant turbulence, rising geopolitical tensions, and complex crises.
This project aims to examine how the implementation of the EU’s recent climate packages (CPs), including the ‘Fit for 55’ package and the forthcoming EU 2040 climate targets, affect the EU’s ability to achieve an effective and just climate transition under conditions of multiple crises. A core contribution of the project will be to offer policy recommendations to address effectiveness and justice issues to ensure the EU’s successful transition to climate neutrality.
By employing a framework of analysis focused on turbulence and crises, we examine how decision-makers can manage or even use crises and turbulence to achieve net-zero emissions and a decarbonized economy. In the scientific literature, crises and their potential to open windows of opportunity to bring about changes have been hotly debated, and the findings remain inconclusive. However, crises have become the ‘new normal’ for the EU, as crises quickly succeed each other and even overlap (e.g. Brexit, Covid-19, Russia’s war in Ukraine). The impact of interacting events that produce a volatile context where the ground is in motion can be understood as turbulence and more research is needed to study the EU’s ability to implement its policies in this complex problem‐solving environment.
First, we investigate whether the CPs, are sufficient to achieve the EU's climate goals and whether the multiple crises have affected EU’s global leadership. Second, we investigate how turbulence affect the political conflicts and implementation challenges within the EU multilevel governance system. Third, we map the different actions taken to achieve a just transition and investigate whether turbulence affect the EU’s ability to achieve such a transition.
Six research questions guide this project:
- To what extent are the CPs sufficient to achieve the EU’s climate goals?
- How do crises and turbulence affect the EU’s global climate leadership and diplomacy?
- What are the political conflicts impacting the implementation of the EU’s CPs, and how can they be overcome?
- To what extent do crises and turbulence affect the implementation of the CPs in the Member States?
- How do the EU and the Member States work to achieve a just and legitimate transition when implementing the CPs?
- To what extent do crises and turbulence affect the EU’s ability to achieve a just and legitimate transition?
EU Climatic is led by Karin Bäckstrand at the Department of Political Science at Stockholm university, and is funded by Formas.
Project description
The project is structured in three work packages: (1) Effectiveness in implementation and leadership in global climate diplomacy (Lead: Karin Bäckstrand); (2) Political conflicts and implementation challenges (Lead: Jana Gheuens), and (3) A just and legitimate transition (Lead: Matilda Miljand).
The EU has worked hard to be a global climate leader. Therefore, WP1 assesses both the EU’s CPs and its diplomacy and leadership in global climate politics. First, it examines to what extent the Fit for 55 package will achieve the climate goals enshrined in the European Climate Law. It also evaluates whether the updated 2040 climate and energy framework is fit for purpose, and consistent with IPCC scenarios, by examining the interplay between EU institutions and MS. Secondly, WP1 takes stock of the EU’s global leadership and climate diplomacy in a rapidly changing geopolitical context with new power constellations, interests, and multiple crises. Finally, WP1 advances policy options and recommendations on how to strengthen EU’s internal and external climate policy to accelerate implementation.
WP2 focuses on the relationship between the implementation of climate policies and turbulence. Implementation is complicated by turbulence and driven by multiple crises. Crises have long been investigated as ‘critical junctures’, moments that spur course changes, and as focusing events, external shocks that fall outside of normal emergencies, disrupting the status quo and potentially enabling far-reaching change. Research on the question whether external shocks actually lead to policy change remains inconclusive and often points to contextual factors. WP2 examines how turbulence can impact political conflicts or agreement on the climate transition, and in doing so on its implementation. In the EU’s multilevel governance system, conflicts can materialize between EU institutions (e.g., EC, EP, and the Council) or even between or within MS (e.g., within the Council or MS parliaments). We are particularly interested in how the conflicts are resolved or can be overcome, aiming at policy recommendations and suggested actions.
The EGD and the climate transition comes with certain risks, including the risk of widening gaps between countries, regions, and citizens. Therefore, the EU launched a number of initiatives (e.g., Just Transition Mechanism, Just Transition Fund, Social Climate Fund) to compensate those actors and regions affected by the green transformation. Furthermore, to increase democratic legitimacy and public support, the EU has initiated public consultations. In doing so, the EU aims at developing a coherent framework that simultaneously considers economic, social, and environmental objectives. To successfully achieve this, certain risks should be considered, such as the need for solidarity between Member States (MS) and their citizens, a consideration of regional and social inequalities in Europe, and the North-South/West-East division between MS. In WP3, we examine these initiatives and ask whether they will have the intended effect and how they are perceived. However, crises and turbulence can put increased pressure on solidarity and risk reinforcing the divisions within the EU. Therefore, this WP also examines whether and how this affects the just transition.
Project members
Project managers
Karin Bäckstrand
Professor
Members
Sebastian Oberthür
Professor
Charles Parker
Professor
Matilda Miljand
Postdoc
Jana Gheuens
Postdoc
Publications
More about this project
Upcoming Event
EU-Climatic Workshop
On September 23 – 24, 2025 at Stockholm University. To be updated.
Scientific Advisory Board (SAB)
- Elin Lerum Boasson, University of Oslo
- Lars Nilsson, Lund University
- Diarmuid Torney, Dublin City University
- Claire Dupont, University of Ghent
Practioner's Advisory Council (PAC)
- Andreas Barkman, European Environment Agency
- Magnus Nilsson, Independent consultant
- Annika Wäppling Korzinek, EU Commission Representation in Sweden