Seminar: Dan Hedlin, Department of Statistics, Stockholm University
Seminar
Date: Wednesday 31 January 2024
Time: 13.00 – 14.00
Location: Campus Albano, Lecture room 9, house 2, level 2
A computed 95% confidence interval does cover the true value with probability 0.95 – epistemically interpreted
Abstract
How to interpret and make use of a computed (realised) confidence interval has been debated for a long time. I advocate that a realised confidence interval covers the parameter with probability . Suppose a sample of batteries in routine use is taken and their lifetimes are measured. A confidence interval is computed to days. The standard interpretation is that if we repeatedly draw samples of the same size and compute confidence intervals, 95% of the intervals will cover the unknown true life time. What can be said about the realised interval has not been clear in the literature. I shall give contradictory examples of interpretations. To appreciate the claim made here, we need to have a look at philosophy of probability and the Fisherian concept of relevant subsets.
Last updated: January 10, 2024
Source: Department of Statistics