Five per cent. According to the EU’s multiannual management plan for Baltic Sea fisheries, the estimated probability of fish stocks covered by the plan running the risk of collapsing (more technically expressed as the spawning biomass falling below the biological limit B-lim) must not exceed this figure. Nevertheless, the EU Council of Ministers has repeatedly agreed on TACs that exceed this risk level. When doing so, they have justified this by referring to forecasts of ‘maximum sustainable yield’ from researchers at ICES.

When ICES presented the scientific basis for this autumn's negotiations on next year's catches at the end of May, the calculations showed that the total catch of herring in the Gulf of Bothnia would need to be reduced by 62 per cent, from this year's 66,446 tonnes to 25,560 tonnes, in order not to violate this “five per cent rule”.

At the same time, the first paragraph of the document, often referred to as the ‘headline advice’, gave a forecast of a maximum sustainable yield of 55 869–62 684 tonnes. The Commission's TACs proposal, however, takes account of the risks in line with the five per cent rule in the regulation, proposing a permitted catch of 25,560 tonnes for the Gulf of Bothnia.

Sara Söderström. Photo: Björn Eklund

"This is a very good proposal. The herring stock in the Gulf of Bothnia has continued to decline and is at a very low level. The proposed catches reduce fishing mortality to levels previously shown to be relatively stable," says Henrik Svedäng, fisheries researcher at Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. 

Henrik Svedäng's colleague Sara Söderström also sees it as positive that the Commission has taken the 5 per cent rule into account in its proposal.

"The Commission's proposal is in accordance with the EU legislation on how total allowable catches are to be set. If the law is to be followed, catches must be reduced significantly. The five per cent rule exists for a reason, which is to act as an emergency brake when a stock is at risk of collapse. It would be remarkable if the Council of Ministers in October violates its own legislation and decide on a higher TAC for the Gulf of Bothnia herring than the Commission's proposal. Unfortunately, this has happened before, but I hope that common sense prevails this time," she says.

Herring in the central Baltic Sea

When it comes to herring in the central Baltic Sea, the Commission is even more conservative. It proposes that this year's EU TAC of 83,881 tonnes be retained next year. In order to comply with the five per cent rule, the total catch (EU plus Russia) must be below 103,073 tonnes, and in ICES's headline advice, the catch range was 120,378–157,996 tonnes.
"The Commission is therefore more cautious when it comes to central Baltic herring, despite the fact the stock in the Gulf of Bothnia is in worse state,” comments Henrik Svedäng.

EU regulations also include a more or less explicit target that stocks should remain above a level known as MSY B-trigger. MSY B-trigger is regarded as a kind of minimum level for a stock to be considered productive. When the stock falls below that level, it should trigger special measures, such as lower catches or restrictions on where, how or when fishing is allowed, so that the stock quickly can rise above the B-trigger again.

ICES assessments show that there is only a 52 per cent probability that the stock in the central Baltic Sea will exceed the B-trigger level next year, even if fishing were to cease completely. With a catch of 103,073 tonnes, this probability decreases to 42 per cent. The proposed can nevertheless be seen as part of the effort to rebuild the stock, in line with the intentions of fisheries policy.

"It must be said that a total catch of 83,881 tonnes is quite cautious. It should at least lead to an increase in spawning biomass next year, and with a bit of luck, it will exceed the MSY B-trigger," says Henrik Svedäng.

Encouraging wording

In several articles and a policy memo, Charles Berkow, policy analyst at the Baltic Sea Centre, has emphasised the importance of EU politicians reading and taking into account the fine print in ICES's documentation, and he is pleased that this seems to be the case with the Commission this time.

Charles Berkow. Photo: Lisa Bergqvist

"It is very good that in the proposal they mention that the stock target for several herring stocks is not expected to be achieved. With regard to the Gulf of Bothnia, I also see that the Commission mentions that the stock is sensitive to loss of genetic diversity, in other words that subpopulations may be wiped out. They also mention that the number of older individuals is unlikely to increase if fishing is carried out at the MSY level, that is, in the headline advice," he says.

According to the management plan, fishing in the Baltic Sea should not only be conducted in such a way that stocks remain productive, but also minimise negative impacts on marine ecosystems, such as the consequences for biodiversity or the food web – the interaction between fish and other species.

"However, neither ICES nor the European Commission mention this, which is unfortunate because it paves the way for the Council of Ministers to disregard these aspects,” notes Charles Berkow.

Fishing ban during spawning season

According to the multi-annual management plan, specific remedial measures should be taken when a stock falls below the MSY B-trigger level. With regard to herring and sprat fishing in the central Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia, the Commission proposes a three-month ban on all trawling in shallow coastal waters (within 4 nautical miles of the baseline in waters shallower than 20 metres) during the fish spawning season. However, Henrik Svedäng believes that this measure is unnecessary.

"Most of the herring spawning in the Bothnian Sea occurs offshore. A ban on fishing in the inshore would only affect coastal fishing and fishing for human consumption. In the Swedish part of the Baltic Proper, these areas are already closed to large vessels due to the trawl limit relocation,” he says.

Charles Berkow explains that the large catches from the big trawlers in the Bothnian Sea occur when the herring gather out at sea, before they head towards the coast to spawn.

"Herring cannot spawn if it has already been fished. One wonders what effects the Commission believes these bans will have on stocks or on vulnerable subpopulations. These proposals risk favouring large-scale fishing at the expense of small-scale fishing,” he says.

Small bycatches allowed for collapsed stocks

Targeted fishing for the western spring-spawning herring stock and both cod stocks in the Baltic Sea has been closed already for several years due to critically low stock levels. Only a certain amount of cod bycatch has been allowed, and for the western herring stock, a small-scale fishery in the Baltic Sea, while most of the catch now takes place in the North Sea.

The Commission is now proposing to remove the exemption for small-scale herring fishing. Instead, only a small amount of unavoidable bycatch will be permitted. The Commission also proposes a significant reduction in bycatches for cod, to a level that is the same as reported catches in 2024 and therefore should be sufficient, according to the Commission.

Remaining catches of sprat

The sprat stock in the Baltic Sea has been viable for a long time, but has declined sharply in recent years. But ICES estimates that recruitment in 2024 has been unusually high and, in its headline advice, indicates a catch range of 176,056–230,518 tonnes.

Henrik Svedäng. Photo: Niklas Björling

However, the Commission notes that ICES emphasises that the 2021–2023 year classes were historically low and that the 2024 year class accounts for a large proportion of the estimated spawning biomass. It stresses that there are considerable uncertainties in the estimate for the 2024 class in particular, as it is based solely on one survey. The Commission also points out that sprat fishing often takes place in mixed fisheries together with herring where there are also reports that sprat may have been incorrectly reported as herring and vice versa. The Commission is therefore taking a more cautious approach and proposes that this year's EU catch of 139,500 tonnes be maintained (Russia also fishes this stock in its fishing waters), as well as a three-month spawning ban. 

"Unfortunately, the spawning ban between 1 May and 31 July will probably have little effect, as it occurs during a period when very little fishing takes place. The effect of this ban would be much greater if it were placed during the first quarter of the year,” Sara Söderström points out.

Decision in October

The final decisions on next year's fishing opportunities will be made by EU fisheries ministers at the Council of Ministers meeting in October. Discussions are likely to be heated, both on allowable catches and on the proposed restrictions that could affect coastal fisheries.

"Finland will probably react strongly to the proposal to reduce the catches in the Gulf of Bothnia by 62 per cent,” comments Henrik Svedäng, adding:

"It should be remembered that all the hairsplitting about probabilities around B-lim and MSY B-trigger, that we are forced to do when stocks are as small as they are today, is a result of how F-MSY – the benchmark for so-called ‘sustainable fishing’ –has been set."

The problems in the Gulf of Bothnia would not have arisen if the researchers at ICES had acknowledged that it is difficult to calculate where F-MSY lies, he believes.

"They should have pointed out 15 years ago that fishing should be curtailed when the spawning biomass had already shown a declining trend since the early 1990s. The same applies to herring in the central Baltic Sea. The stocks and all sub-stocks appear to be doing much better then fishing pressure is significantly below the estimated F-MSY.”

Text: Lisa Bergqvist

Proposed and current TACs in relation to ICES advice

* Refers only to EU catches of stocks shared with Russia
** Refers to EU and Russian catches of shared stocks

Related reading

ICES’ advice could result in illegal herring catches (2025-06-11)

Comment on ICES' advice: What level of risk? (2025-05-28)

Fisheries experts on the Council’s TAC decision: Too big risk – May be illegal (2025-10-30)

Policy memo: Decision-makers need to read the ’fine print’ in ICES advice (2025-10-10)