Location:C609 Rossbysalen, MISU, Svante Arrhenius väg 16C, 6th floor
Title: The History and Future of Systematic Assessment of Earth System Models
Abstract
Projections of future climate from Earth system models (ESMs) are central to research underpinning the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, and they are used to inform climate adaptation and mitigation policies. Improved representations of processes and feedbacks in ESMs are essential for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. As ESMs become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive evaluation and benchmarking of their results. Such model-data intercomparison studies have led, over the last three decades, to the development of software packages that provide systematic and comprehensive evaluation of models through comparisons with best-available observational and reanalysis data. Model evaluation and benchmarking inform the continued development of ESMs and the design of new measurement campaigns aimed at reducing uncertainties associated with key atmospheric, terrestrial, marine, and cryospheric processes. The World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is facilitating the development of a Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) that will leverage existing community, open-source model benchmarking tools to provide an integrated package for assessing model fidelity across the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and cryosphere realms in the upcoming CMIP phases. The REF will be deployed at Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes, where it will be automatically run to evaluate simulation results as they are published and made available to researchers and the public. In addition, the containerized REF workflow will be made available to modeling centers and researchers for their own use. This presentation will review the evolution of evaluation and benchmarking approaches and tools and will offer an overview of the REF, which is scheduled to be released later this year.
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