Seminar, Thorsten Mauritsen, Professor of Climate science, MISU

Seminar

Date: Tuesday 16 September 2025

Time: 11.15 – 12.15

Location: C609 Rossbysalen, MISU, Svante Arrhenius väg 16C, 6th floor

Title: A super clean future atmosphere due to wildfire suppression could fast track global warming.

Declining wildfire activity during the 20th Century is suggested to have offset part of the cooling from sulfate aerosols originating from fossil fuel burning during the industrial era. As a result, top-down constraints on aerosol forcing – based on the fact that the Earth has actually been warming – could be overly optimistic, and sulfate aerosol forcing potentially be at the high end. An implication of this is that we may see extra warming as the world transitions to clean energy sources, while suppressing wildfire activity through managed forestry and agricultural practice, resulting in a super clean atmosphere. Estimates of Earth’s climate sensitivity are, however, not affected substantially under this scenario, and the resulting additional warming therefore bounded: our estimates suggest 0.5 K is possible.

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